Amman, April 15 (Petra) - The Jordan Strategy (JSF) Forum has released a policy paper titled "Geo-economic Conflict: The Defining Feature of Global Risks 2026", highlighting key findings from the Global Risks Report 2026 published by the World Economic Forum.
The forum said isolated and limited shocks no longer characterize the global landscape but rather a continuous chain of disruptions, beginning with global financial crises, followed by the COVID-19 pandemic, and then a series of international and regional conflicts. These developments have been accompanied by disruptions to supply chains and global trade, inflationary pressures, slower growth and rising public debt.
It noted that these shifts have had a clear impact on societal welfare and stability, while also weakening the ability of governments and companies to plan for the long term, making resilience and adaptability decisive factors in shaping countries’ development paths.
The forum said the significance of the Global Risks Report 2026 lies in its role as a key international reference tracking global risk trends and transformations. The report draws on a survey of more than 1,300 experts and around 11,000 executives across 116 countries to identify the most likely threats facing states in the coming years.
The paper said uncertainty has become the defining feature of the global system, as reflected in the rising Global Uncertainty Index based on data from the Economist Intelligence Unit, particularly since early 2024. Continued geopolitical tensions regionally and globally are expected to further intensify this trend, it added.
The report categorizes risks into five main groups: societal, technological, geopolitical, environmental and economic. For the first time, geo-economic conflict has topped the list of short-term global risks, with the highest share of respondents (18%) identifying it as the most likely trigger of a global crisis in 2026. The survey was conducted prior to the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli-Iranian conflict.
The forum said the importance of this risk lies not only in its ranking but also in its broad and interconnected impact, encompassing economic sanctions, tariffs and trade measures, investment controls, subsidies and supply chain restrictions. These tools are increasingly being used within the framework of national security and strategic economic independence.
It added that purely economic risks, separate from geo-economic conflicts, were absent from the top 10 global risks, with respondents viewing them as less likely to trigger a sudden and widespread global crisis compared with geopolitical conflicts, ideological and cultural divisions, and technological disruptions.
On technological risks, the forum said they continue to rise in both the short and long term, with misinformation, disinformation and cybersecurity threats ranking among the most prominent risks. These threats extend beyond the digital space, undermining trust in information and institutions, deepening polarisation and increasing societies’ vulnerability to economic and social shocks.
The forum also highlighted the rising prominence of artificial intelligence risks, which have moved from lower rankings in the short term to fifth place among long-term risks, reflecting growing global concern over AI shifting from a productivity driver to a potential source of amplified misinformation, content manipulation and influence over public opinion and decision-making.
It said societal risks remain a central feature of the global risk landscape, with ideological and cultural division ranking among the top current risks, while inequality continues to pose a significant threat in both the short and long term. The importance of this risk stems from its strong links with other challenges, including economic slowdown, misinformation, erosion of civil liberties, and social unrest.
At the regional level, the forum noted a clear divergence in the nature of expected risks across Arab countries.
It added that advanced economies such as the United Kingdom, Singapore, Austria and Ireland face similar patterns of risk to those confronting Arab states, including economic contraction, labor shortages, inflation, debt and inadequate public services. This convergence underscores that risks are no longer confined to specific geographic areas but have become shared and cross-cutting, amid growing interdependence through supply chains and global trade, where shocks quickly spread across economies.
In light of these findings, the Jordan Strategy Forum said understanding the nature and trajectory of risks can help decision-makers formulate strategies that enhance preparedness, resilience and the ability to withstand shocks.
It stressed the importance of adopting balanced and integrated policies to strengthen the resilience of Jordan’s economy and improve its capacity to adapt and respond effectively. This includes enhancing governance and institutional readiness by improving efficiency, strengthening responsiveness to shocks, and ensuring regulatory stability.
The forum also highlighted the need to strengthen fiscal sustainability and resource management, particularly in public finance, water and energy, to reduce vulnerabilities and improve efficiency. It called for developing infrastructure and logistics services by upgrading transport networks and supply chains, improving logistics performance and advancing digital transformation.
It also urged a focus on transparent and objective communication through a proactive approach to delivering accurate information clearly and realistically to raise awareness among citizens and investors and reduce the risks associated with rumours and misinformation.
//Petra// AF
