Amman, Dec. 28 (Petra) – Jordan’s economy in 2025 has emerged as a study in macroeconomic resilience, characterized by a delicate balancing act between maintaining monetary stability and catalyzing productive growth. Despite a volatile regional security landscape and a global shift toward protectionist trade policies, Amman has successfully steered its "Economic Modernization Vision" into a high-execution phase, transitioning from crisis management to institutionalized expansion.

Monetary Fortress and Fiscal Discipline The Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) has maintained a "hawkish" commitment to price stability, successfully anchoring inflation at a modest 1.8%–2%, among the lowest in the MENA region. This disciplined monetary stance is backed by a robust foreign exchange reserve cushion, which reached a record $24.6 billion in November – a vital buffer that bolsters the Jordanian Dinar’s peg and mitigates exogenous shocks.

Market confidence in Jordan’s sovereign credit profile was further validated by the recent Eurobond issuance. The $700 million offering was oversubscribed threefold, achieving a fixed coupon of 5.75% – a significant 175 basis point compression compared to 2023. This successful capital market entry reflects a "flight to quality" among investors eyeing Jordan’s successful completion of the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) reviews.

Export Dynamism and FDI Inflows On the trade front, Jordanian exports demonstrated remarkable sectoral agility. Total exports surged by 7.7%, nearing JD7.8 billion, despite rising maritime logistics costs stemming from Red Sea instabilities. Notably, Jordan maintained its market share in the U.S. – which absorbs approximately 25% of its outward trade – effectively navigating new tariff complexities through enhanced product competitiveness.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) saw a significant 35% uptick, driven by a pipeline of "mega-projects" including the National Conveyor water project and the Risha Gas development. These capital-intensive ventures have acted as a multiplier for the domestic economy, signaling to private equity and institutional investors that Jordan remains a "safe haven" for long-term infrastructure arbitrage.

The Syrian "Reconstruction Dividend" and Tourism Recovery A pivotal shift in 2025 has been the normalization of trade corridors with Syria. The easing of barriers has triggered a 300% surge in bilateral trade, positioning Jordan as a primary logistics and procurement hub for regional reconstruction. Simultaneously, the tourism sector – a critical source of hard currency – rebounded aggressively in the latter half of the year, generating over $7 billion in receipts.

The 2026 Fiscal Roadmap: From Stability to Stimulus Looking toward the next fiscal cycle, the 2026 Budget signals an expansionary pivot. With a 16.8% increase in capital expenditure (targeted at JD1.6 billion), the government is prioritizing productive investment over consumption. The "early-mover" advantage in passing the budget reflects a high degree of fiscal certainty and a commitment to lowering the debt-to-GDP ratio through growth rather than austerity.

//Petra// AA