Amman, Oct. 27 (Petra) -- The Arab world's population has reached about 511 million, making it the third largest if the region were considered a single country, after India and China, the Arab Council for Population and Development said Tuesday.
In a statement ahead of Arab Day for Population and Development on Wednesday, the council said the day coincides with the anniversary of its 2019 founding. It said the occasion is meant to assess the region's demographic situation, strengthen development work and exchange expertise on how population shifts affect sustainable development.
About 60 percent of the region’s population lives in the African part of the Arab world, the council said. Egypt, Sudan, Algeria and Morocco account for about 51 percent of the region's population. The council expects the population to rise to about 591 million by 2035 and about 718 million by 2050. That is an increase of about 207 million over the next 24 years, or about 9 million a year.
Arab societies differ in population size and structure, and are at varying stages of demographic transition, the council said. They also differ in the share of non-Arab residents, which affects labor markets, economic growth, and housing, education, health and social service needs.
Fertility rates vary widely, according to the council. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and Tunisia have rates below the replacement level, at two children or fewer per woman. The presence of expatriate residents in Gulf states may have affected the estimates, the council said.
Rates range from 2.1 to 2.9 children per woman in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Morocco, Jordan, Syria, Djibouti, Algeria, Palestine and Egypt, and from 3 to 3.9 in Libya, Iraq and Yemen. The highest rates are in Somalia at 6.4 children per woman, Mauritania at 4.8, Sudan at 4.2 and the Comoros at 4.
Arab societies remain young overall. Children under 15 make up about 30 percent of the population, the council said. The share is higher in low-income countries: 48 percent in Somalia, 44 percent in Yemen, 42 percent in Mauritania and 40 percent in Sudan. The council said this poses a development challenge in education, health care and nutrition.
The share is lower in the Gulf, at 15 percent in Qatar, 16 percent in the UAE and 18 percent in Kuwait. The council attributed this to declining fertility and a large share of young expatriate workers.
People aged 65 and older make up less than 5 percent of the population in most Arab countries. Qatar and the UAE have the lowest shares, at no more than 2 percent. Tunisia has 10 percent, Morocco 9 percent, Lebanon 8 percent, and Algeria 7 percent. The council attributed the higher shares to declining fertility over the past two decades and the proportion of their populations living abroad.
//Petra// NQ
