AMMAN, Oct. 13 (Petra) – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Jordan’s real GDP growth to accelerate to 3.1 percent by 2027, up from a projected 2.7 percent for the current year, underscoring the macroeconomic resilience of the national economy in navigating regional shocks and global supply-chain disruptions.
According to the World Economic Outlook report released Tuesday, the Fund revised its 2026 growth projection for Jordan to 2.7 percent–compared to 2.8 percent in 2025–before anticipating a 0.4-percent expansion in economic momentum the following year.
The projections coincide with Department of Statistics (DoS) figures showing real GDP grew by 3.0 percent in Q2 2026, outpacing the 2.8 percent recorded in the corresponding period last year. Growth was spearheaded by key productive verticals, notably agriculture (7.8 percent), manufacturing (6.2 percent), and utilities/electricity (5.0 percent).
On the monetary front, the IMF forecasts headline inflation to average 2.5 percent this year, up from 1.8 percent in 2025, before moderating to 2.3 percent in 2027. Official domestic figures peg year-to-date inflation at 2.26 percent through September, driven primarily by upward adjustments in transportation and housing rentals.
Externally, the Fund projects the current account deficit to widen to 7.5 percent of GDP in 2026, compared to 5.6 percent last year, before narrowing to 5.7 percent by 2027. This widening reflects acute external sector pressures facing energy-importing economies amid ongoing Middle Eastern conflict, maritime trade bottlenecks, and elevated energy input costs.
Regionally, the IMF projects the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economy to contract by 2.0 percent this year, prior to staging a robust recovery of 7.0 percent growth in 2027. Import-intensive emerging markets in the region, including Jordan, are projected to maintain steady growth at 4.7 percent across both the current and coming years.
The report highlighted that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a systemic shock across global commodity and energy markets, halting transit through a vital chokepoint that previously moved roughly 20 million barrels per day.
Consequently, the IMF baseline assumes oil prices will average USD 95.74 per barrel in 2026 before easing to USD 87.39 per barrel in 2027, contingent upon the phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by March and normalized maritime throughput by October of next year.
The Fund cautioned that protracted geopolitical escalation risks compounding stagflationary pressures–prolonging energy and food price volatility and straining external balances across net energy importers. Globally, the IMF projects world output to expand by 3.1 percent this year, rising to 3.4 percent in 2027, buoyed by resilient energy supply channels and surging artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditures despite systemic geopolitical headwinds.
//Petra// AA
