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  3. Fiscal Outturns Mirror Budget Estimates in Rare Two-decade Alignment

Fiscal Outturns Mirror Budget Estimates in Rare Two-decade Alignment

01/03/2026 | 14:10:12

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Amman, March 1 (Petra) – Final fiscal results for 2025 showed a near-total alignment between actual performance and projections outlined in the General Budget Law, marking one of the rare instances in nearly two decades in which outturns closely matched approved estimates.

The outcome reflects adherence to fiscal targets and the government’s continued implementation of a disciplined financial reform program grounded in realistic forecasting and precise execution.

Data indicated that domestic revenues increased by 6.6 percent in 2025, reaching JD9.312 billion compared with JD8.735 billion in 2024. The rise was driven by a 6.8 percent growth in tax revenues, supported by higher general sales tax proceeds, customs revenues, and real estate sales tax, which expanded by 9.9 percent, 2.2 percent, and 4 percent, respectively. Non-tax revenues also grew by 6.2 percent.

The improvement coincided with the expansion of the tax base, enhanced collection efficiency, and the broad rollout of the national e-invoicing system, whose coverage expanded fivefold in 2025 compared with previous years since its launch in 2022. This contributed to higher compliance rates and improved the quality and accuracy of tax and customs data.

Total public revenues, including external grants amounting to JD684 million, rose by 5.9 percent to approximately JD9.996 billion in 2025, compared with JD9.439 billion in 2024.

Total public expenditure increased by 6.2 percent to JD12.252 billion, up from JD11.538 billion the previous year. Capital expenditure recorded its highest execution rate in recent years, reaching JD1.4 billion, a 20 percent increase over 2024, with an implementation rate of 95 percent of budgeted allocations, compared with 68 percent in 2024. The performance reflects improved capital spending efficiency and accelerated implementation of development projects.

Current expenditure reached JD10.852 billion, marking a 4.7 percent increase from JD10.368 billion in 2024. As a result, domestic revenues covered approximately 86 percent of current expenditure in 2025, compared with 84 percent in 2024, reinforcing reliance on internal resources to finance recurrent obligations.

The post-grants fiscal deficit stood at JD2.256 billion, approximately JD2 million below the target set in the 2025 Budget Law, reflecting fiscal discipline and limited deviation from planned projections.

On arrears accumulated in previous years, the government repaid JD320 million in 2025 and JD300 million in 2024, bringing total repayments during 2024–2025 to JD620 million. A further JD300 million is scheduled for settlement in 2026, raising total repayments under the 2024–2026 plan to JD920 million as part of a structured strategy to address outstanding obligations incurred prior to 2024.

Regarding public debt management, the government redeemed Eurobonds maturing in the first half of 2025 ahead of schedule through concessional financing, avoiding recourse to international capital markets and generating annual savings estimated at $40 million. Bonds due in 2026 were also prepaid through concessional arrangements. In addition, Eurobonds were issued at a 5.75 percent interest rate for a seven-year tenor, reflecting the lowest historical margin compared with previous issuances.

The outstanding public debt balance, excluding holdings of the Social Security Investment Fund, reached JD36.237 billion, equivalent to 82.8 percent of estimated gross domestic product in 2025. Excluding borrowings undertaken in November 2025 to meet January 2026 maturities, debt levels are projected to remain broadly in line with those recorded at the end of 2024, indicating relative stability in the overall debt trajectory.

A debt sustainability analysis issued by the International Monetary Fund indicated that public debt remains manageable and that the government retains the capacity to meet its medium- and long-term obligations. The assessment cited ongoing policies aimed at refinancing higher-cost debt with concessional instruments, consistent with the objective of reducing the debt-to-gross domestic product ratio to 80 percent by 2028.

//Petra// AJ

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